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5 Trends to Watch: 2025 International Trade & Supply Chain — Mexico

  1. Challenges in Trade Policies — The incoming presidential administration’s anticipated implementation of trade protections in the United States may trigger an uncertain trade environment, affecting Mexican export costs and possibly leading the country to increase tariffs and conduct anti-dumping investigations against Asian imports. To face these challenges, companies may want to consider diversifying their markets, closely monitoring U.S. policies, and adjusting their logistical planning. The Ministry of Economy may announce incentive programs that might contribute to cost savings and operational efficiencies for companies.

  2. Potential Changes to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — Changes in the USMCA are anticipated in strategic sectors, such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology, which may involve relocating manufacturing facilities to the United States and implementing trade barriers on products from Asia. To prepare, companies should focus on strengthening their internal audits, ensuring compliance with regional content, reviewing operations, and aligning with labor and environmental standards. Additionally, the change in the Canadian government could influence treaty negotiations.

  3. Regulatory Compliance in the Supply Chain — Correct and complete compliance of tariff, customs, and tax obligations will be key to mitigate tax and commercial liabilities, including potential issues with valuation or undervaluation of goods.

  4. Increased Nearshoring Expected — Nearshoring is expected to increase across multiple sectors. The growth in new projects is expected to boost regional economic development and attract additional foreign investments. Mexico is likely to continue to strengthen its internal policies and position as a reliable trade partner to maximize these opportunities.

  5. Digitalization Will Continue to Revolutionize the Market — Digitalization is expected to continue to redefine the global trade landscape through technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and big data, improving traceability, efficiency, and security while reducing risks and costs. The growth of e-commerce and parcel services could offer new opportunities, but also potential logistical and sustainability challenges. Additionally, some companies might face significant challenges in technology and training to comply with regulations, as certain Mexican government agencies implement AI and other systems.

About the Authors:

Guillermo Sanchez Chao is a shareholder and Eduardo Grajales González is an associate in Greenberg Traurig LLP’s Mexico City office, which offers clients innovative, strategic advice and legal services that span both traditional fields and contemporary regulatory sectors. The office has more than 60 bilingual attorneys who have been contributors to major national projects in Mexico and leverages the resources and reach of the firm’s global platform to provide clients with tailored legal services reflective of the specific industry and market conditions in which they operate. The Mexico City office is an integral part of the firm’s award-winning Latin America Practice, and has been recognized with leading competition, corporate, M&A, compliance, infrastructure, real estate, privacy, energy, administrative litigation, and banking practices in Mexico.